The future of search engines: the user will not search anymore, something (an agent) will do this job for him!

Today, searching for content on Internet is generally done via a well defined web interface eg. search engines.

The user needs to open a web page (www.google.com, etc.) then key in a set of keywords and finally browse and sort out the results pages. Don’t you think this is a quite primitive way of retrieving content?

Now let’s try to think the idea of searching the Internet a bit differently.

Wouldn’t be there a smarter and faster way for the user to have the needed information delivered right to his/her desktop or mobile appliance instead of spending so much time in a classical Internet search process?

Is it possible to imagine that - in a not so distant future - the user will not need anymore to navigate to a dedicated website and carry out time-consuming search operations?

What if search would be delivered instantly or “on demand” wherever you are, whenever and whatever the appliance you use? A kind of “push search”…

Since I am acting in the search industry, I feel that the way of searching could be submitted soon to a dramatic change. I start to believe that search will tend to be less and less USER CENTRIC. Instead, “SOMETHING” (yet to be defined) will get the ability to search on behalf of the USER.

Let’s call this “something” an agent.

The idea of “agents” is not that new. It has already been introduced in the late 90’s, before Google became the master of the world. It is as if Google’s simple technology overrode all third and fourth generations of search technologies and all kind of rising innovations!

An agent could be a piece of code that would act autonomously. Such an agent would be trained and programmed by the user to crawl the Internet and then repatriate only the relevant content found during its digital journey, independently of any user further action.

Such an agent could be a kind of living digital being, a piece of software, a widget on the desktop or simply a string of instructions or even a smart avatar.

What would be different is that the user could teach his/her agent to improve and even to anticipate. For example, when the user would have a deadline to fill a tax form the agent would be able to detect the date, go on Internet, find the PDF or online form, fill some of the required fields and bring back home the information and the associated guidelines. It would be coupled with the calendar function and other functions or applications already existing on the computer.

Other example, the user plans to go on vacation. So, he/she needs to compare the best air fares. Usually, you spend up to several hours to find the best opportunity. With a smart agent, you would just key in your initial criterias, go to bed and let it explore the whole Internet and bring you the most accurate list of travel opportunities.

Now everybody sees that this kind of (r)evolution is not completely an utopia. It is a reachable dream although it requires some AI (Artificial Intelligence) but also user’s intelligence (to configure it and teach it).

No doubt that if this kind of technologies bursts one day, current incumbent search engines would have to rethink their business models.

And you what is your opinion.

This post is sponsored by Blogdimension.com, The Live Web Search Engine!

A selection of key factors for (un)successful Web based businesses: dos and don’ts

After nearly 13 years of (in)experience in the Internet sector, I begin to have a fair view of the conditions for successful (and unfortunately also for unsuccessful) Web businesses.

In particular, my ongoing experience at Blogdimension.com adds a decisive insight of what should not be done in modelling an online business. It is too early to determine whether this project is a success or not. I should know it in a couple a couple of months.

Let’s begin by the Dont’s

- don’t launch a service focused exclusively on a local audience! Your audience must be global! Your competitors are anyway global.
- don’t do it alone! You cannot take in charge all the business processes alone.
- don’t count on your personal savings to grow a profitable business! External funding (and expertise) is vital unless you are already a millionaire!
- don’t think small! All successful online businesses are based on a worldwide traffic.
- don’t launch a service where you will need an important storage capacity! You will need to buy and manage dozens or hundreds of servers.
- don’t think a huge audience is the only key! You will face numerous downtimes if your technical infrastructure is not scaled to handle such a traffic.
- don’t launch your service when the business environment is uncertain! Gaining audience and fundings will be a harder job in these periods.
- don’t launch your revolutionary idea too early or too late! On the one hand your project will bring too much mistrust or indifference and on the other hand you will have to face too many competitors on the same niche. Launch it timely!
- don’t spend time in searching K$ if you have the possibility to find M$! You consume as much time and personal energy for little money as for big numbers. Don’t forget Time kills all deals!

And now the Dos

- the content of you website should be provided by your users! Why exhausting yourself in producing content that will not be read by others? This is one of the principles of Web 2.0.
- write and publish about your website as often as you can in order to increase your coverage in search engines and social media (a good example, is Loic Le Meur who does a really great job about his project Seesmic).
- when you write your business plan do at least three different versions: pessimistic assumption, optimistic assumption and of course realistic assumption (even the pessimistic is too optimistic).
- when you are about to find investors, always oppose investor A against investor B (if you can).
- make yourself as many friends (in fact supporters of your service) as possible and zero enemies. Enemies are in general more efficient than friends.
- design your products with your users! Users like to be part of the product (co-designing is one of the leading concepts in today’s business). And collective intelligence is a leverage for great ideas.
- find a strategic partner that is already recognized! You will benefit from his glory. But you must know to get swiftly rid of him if his glory turns into disgrace.
- know to set a value to your online business even in early stage! For example, by comparing with other similar sites which have been sold previously.
- you do an online service for your users, not for yourself! Have always the user value in mind.
- do have enough resources to run your initial business at least during two years before you get any external financial support! Dealing with angel investors and VCs takes a very long time.
- be an opportunist! (marketing, business and media contacts).

Well sorry for the Dos I have less ideas. Do you have more?

I admit some items seem to be in contradiction. But doing business is not only a matter of rationality. Nevertheless, I believe there are some possibilities to launch an online business based on the here above Don’ts and Dos!

Also, I agree these Don’ts and Dos are not an absolute method for succeding in business. It is just my personal feedback. I am sure you can complete both lists with your own opinion and of course experience.

All the best!

Is the financial bubble going to contaminate the Web 2.0 one?

Well, the question is not that stupid.

Still a couple of months ago I used to believe IT sector and especially Web 2.0 one would be a real haven for dampened investors who previously blew it by putting their money into complex financial warrants/securities and real-estate.

Now as time flies I begin to reconsider my initial speculations.

I come to believe that investors won’t report their remaining funds from the shocked financial sector to the IT one.

I guess they are going to start taking their time before investing in some new ventures. They will probably be inclined to a “wait and see” attitude or may be to invest massively in sought-after goods like oil, grain and other basic commodities.

Why do I think what I think?

Because, I am currently sending some business plans in order to ask for some VCs fundings and I notice even the simple response process takes a lot of time; several months!

For example, I first contacted some angel investors in December 2007. Normally, the whole process of raising such funds takes about six months or less. But, now - even though my plan is completed and seems to be validated from the investor’s side - I’ve been warned it may take some additional weeks/months whereas everything had been planned for June! It’s as my contacts were waiting for something in order to give their final answer. I have no vision about their decision. Meanwhile, I have to bear growing costs (servers, bandwidth) for the service without knowing when the final decision will arrive. We can call that “managing the uncertainty”! :)

Other example, I sent two documents for governmental fundings. Here in the contrary I received the (negative) responses very quickly. Too quickly in my opinion. But France is not known for its extensive support for High-Tech projects!

I first thought my business plan was lousy. But I cannot completely be sure of that since it was positively evaluated by a widely known consulting firm and also approved by our contact at the investors’.

All these waverings make me think it’s bad times for Web 2.0 initiatives! Of course, some big projects like Yahoo, Facebook, Twitter will still be under the radar. But in my sense, it won’t be investors (VCs, funds, etc.) but rather acquisitions from bigger operators like Microsoft or Google trying to consolidate their strategies.

Do you have the same feeling? Or am I getting specifically paranoid?

This post is therefore not sponsored by Blogdimension.com, The Live Web Search Engine!

USB port as a future standard for power supply?

I recently found out that several of my electronic devices are supplied by a USB port.

That is the case for my mobile Samsung SGH-X700 (OK, I admit it is a bit a “has been” product now compared to the iPhone or Blackberry but it’s robust and very functional. It is also an EDGE mobile!), my two iPods (the basic one and the Touch) and - I am not sure - may be also my digital camera…

Instead of carrying your power AC plug that you need to adapt with specific plugs each time you travel throughout the world why do the device manufacturers not create together the “USB power supply interest group”? They could find some inspiration at the Bluetooth SIG organization or other great standards.
A USB power supply standard for all electronic and communication devices including games or even some domestic appliances would have many benefits for the users:

1) You need to carry only one single USB/mini USB cable with you (you travel lightweight),
2) Every USB appliance could power any other USB appliance. For example, a laptop could power an iPhone or a mobile phone,
3) Same power supply applies to any region,
4) Eventually, a solar panel system could also bring some fuel to the devices via a USB port.

One single USB cable for powering all your devices? Is it an utopia or could it be the reality soon?

And you what do you think about this idea? Maybe an interest group does already exist. If so, it should be buzzed loud!

More information about the USB and PoweredUSB on Wikipedia.

This post is sponsored by Blogdimension.com, the Live Web Search Engine!

The hassle of Web 2.0 entrepreneurship

When Internet started to soar in the late 90’s everybody believed it would generate unlimited business possibilities. Anybody used to convince himself/herself (and others) he/she could expand a booming business with the kids playing between his/her legs from home. The dream of telecommuting (teleworking) from the garden in a sunny day became like a real fixation at that time.

Online entrepreneurs would open a merchant website, selling various stuff and home-made products. Quite a few of these pure players succeeded in building a lucrative and hassle-free business. At least in Europe. May be you have some good examples of online self-entrepreneurship in the USA. But anyway I would put my house on it they are not so numerous compared to the established business that went successfully online.

The point is that running an online activity implies as many business processes as in real life! Usual business processes are marketing, communication, canvassing, product management, accounting, distribution, shipment, etc. which are often too complex to be managed all by a single person.

So, logically, in case of rapid success, the domestic enterprise becomes a normal business implying several people and offices or premises. We are far from the dream of a peaceful teleworking business.

Now about the Web 2.0 business which seems to be the new gold mine of the moment and the promised bonanza for self-entrepreneurs… The business focused on Web 2.0 techniques take place in a context already shaped by a few big players (Google, Yahoo, Amazon, eBay, etc.). These huge players’ combined share markets are close to 99%. It means a Web 2.0-ish newcomer has either to kick the Big ones out by offering a better value proposition to the users or to create a new market (niche market, for example) or - and here is the keynote of the current post - have strong investors to support his/her venture.

The question is

“how does a user - who has only a maximum of 16 hours of available time per day dedicated to online activities - allocate his precious time to several online services?”

The answer is that your product or service must be good enough to be part of the 4 or 5 top services used by the users on a daily basis, whatever your online business model: advertising or sales. If your product is not in the reference list of the user (or ‘bookmark’ since we talk about online activity) you have little chance to develop a profitable business.

Having already tried a first online business from 1997 to 2001 and now a second one since 2006 I can tell you now with some experience that becoming a prosperous Internet pure player relying only on your little hands is a really daunting challenge.

In both cases, my partners and I succeeded in designing a good online product, building the audience, investing our personal savings in machinery and servers, obtaining an interesting media fallout, writing a valid business plan for the investors… Even though you succeed in all these stages you will not be able to transform your self-entrepreneurship into a big business without any external help. By external help, I mean investors (business angels, VCs and other sponsors).

This time, and in the contrary of my previous attempts, I decided to adopt the approach for external funding. So, we are currently seeking for investors because we feel we cannot develop further our online Web 2.0 service without the marketing and management skills of external people and business experts.

If we do not find any help and external insight we condemn ourselves to evolve at a very slow pace and eventually disappear. The fact is that when you launch a service with very scarce resources you can thrive several years without dying nor soaring. Your business remains somewhere “in between”, in a larvae stage. Take this experience into account if you have the self-entrepreneurship spirit and you intend to launch your own online service!